A serious military confrontation between the United States and Iran is possible. Iran was part of the Axis of evil. With Iraq now occupied by US forces and North Korea disarming its nuclear installations, the stage is set for a confrontation with Iran (Symonds). The US is actively mobilizing world opinion against Iran. It has pushed for tougher economic sanctions through the United Nations. It has expanded its military presence in recent weeks. Inside Iraq reports of Iranian made explosives and arms have been delivered by US officials. Iranian diplomats have also been arrested because of suspected ties with Iraqi insurgents. The US has also announced the sale of arms to its Gulf allies and Israel (Symonds).
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Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami offered the US to end support for terrorist groups and stall efforts to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. This was rejected by the Bush administration. It marginalized the moderate factions in Iran and led to the emergence of more radical factions in Iran. This shows that the US wanted to set the stage for confrontation with Iran by the behavior of more radical elements of the Iranian regime (Alexandrovna).
An estimated 75 million dollars were allocated for promoting democracy in Iran. This move was designed to generate social and political unrest in Iran. The Iranian authorities cracked hard on the media and political activists. Most of the money went to opposition groups who are outside Iran. Many political groups believe that the money was not good for democracy and instead has resulted in a harsh political crackdown by Iranian authorities.
The US and Britain have also been actively supporting ethnic insurgent groups in Iran. These groups have been responsible for sabotaging oil pipelines, attacking soldiers and blowing up police stations. The motive is to create ethnic unrest amongst Iran’s ethnically perse population. The Iraqi based Iranian terrorist group Mujahideen Khalq has also been provided assistance and support by US forces in Iraq to launch attacks against the Iranians. Ironically the group was declared a terrorist group by the US State Department and has been responsible for attacks on American civilians in the 1970s. Kurdish separatist groups have also been actively involved in attacks against the Iranian regime (Jones).
The US is rallying the international community to cut off economic ties with Iran. The UN has already imposed two sanctions on Iran. The US is even lobbying China and Russia to end their economic ties with Iran. Sanctions could hurt the Iranian government as it would breed social and political unrest in the country (Jones).
The US has also increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf. Three US aircraft carriers: Nimitz, John C. Stennis Strike Group, and Dwight D. Eisenhower are deployed against Iran. These naval groups have also conducted military exercises which might be a rehearsal for attacks on Iranian naval installations and oil installations. Additional US troops have been deployed in Iraq to stop the flow of arms from Iran. President Bush has authorized US troops to kill or capture Iranian agents inside Iraq. Several Iranian diplomats have been arrested by US troops.
The US has announced a 20 billion dollars arms deal to the Gulf States and 30 billion dollars arms deal to Israel. The US is forming a possible coalition of Arab states and Israel against Iran. Iran is being accused of backing insurgents in Iraq with a new form of improvised explosive device that has destroyed US armor. US foreign policy is shifting its focus on Iran’s nuclear program to its support for terrorism. Iran is also being blamed for supporting Hezbollah and Hamas (Butt). These terrorist organizations receive Iranian arms, support and finance. The US has labeled the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization.
The entire Iranian government is accused of being a terrorist state. A US strike in Iran would be beneficial for the administration as it would pert public attention from US failures in Iraq and Afghanistan (Butt). Any US attack on Iran would be disastrous and carry regional repercussions. Iran could stir up Iraqi insurgent groups to step up their attacks on US troops and bases. Hezbollah and Hamas would open a new front against Israel with suicide bombings, missile and mortar attacks. Iran would clearly widen the conflict by attacking Israel and Gulf States. Iran could also activate its international network of terrorists to attack US interests worldwide.
Political unrest could increase in Arab and Muslim states pressurizing their governments to end support to US action against Iran. Iran has long range missiles capable of hitting major Arab capitals and Israel. They could attack oil installations in the Arab states. Iran’s navy could close the Strait of Hormuz by laying mines and stopping the flow of oil. This could ignite an oil crisis in the world. Anti Americanism would also increase and terrorist groups would find new motivation to attack the US.
The US is planning for military action against Iran. It has been rallying world opinion to impose sanctions against Iran. The rhetoric against Iran has also been stepped up in recent weeks. The US military presence in the Persian Gulf is the largest since the invasion of Iraq. An attack on Iran would be disastrous to US as Iran has the ability to retaliate.
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