Company Analysis: Forecasting Theme Park Attendance

Running Head: COMPANY ANALYSIS 1

COMPANY ANALYSIS

Forecasting Theme Park Attendance
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Forecasting is the making of predictions concerning future based present and past trends, analysis and data. There are two major models which are used to forecast attendance at a theme park. The two models are the moving averages and the exponential smoothing which are particular types of weighted average applying decreasing measure to past data. Two techniques commonly used are the qualitative and the quantitative methods. Qualitative methods based on consumers’ opinion or judgment. They are mostly where the past data are unavailable. They usually apply to great rage decision or the so-called intermediate. Qualitative forecasting techniques include historical life-cycle, Delphi method, informed opinion, and judgment. On the other hand, quantitative method is mainly used when forecasting future facts based on the past data. Commonly applied to short-range decisions and more necessary when numerical data are available. Quantitative methods include simple, multiplicative seasonal indexes, weighed average and the last period demand.
Both qualitative and quantitative techniques are necessary for most evaluations even though they differ in application. Since at a particular point, they are being used together for different purposes. The combination of quantitative and qualitative data improves evaluation whereby they ensure the limitations of a particular type of data are well balanced using the strength of each other. However, it is necessary for one to have a clear plan in advance on how both techniques can be combined. Moving average model is more superior to the exponential smoothing since it can be easily computed as well as understood. It also provides stable and précised forecasts. I would consider the cost of the method as well as the predictive ability.